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Thursday, 14 December 2023

By 2027, 41% of retail sales will be online

By 2027, 41% of retail sales will be online

According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), since the pandemic, online sales via e-commerce have increased globally.

The pandemic led to a surge in online sales, which turned into a lull for many retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies in 2022. But e-commerce is far from at a standstill and is not limited to dedicated events or offers such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In fact, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts that by 2027, as much as 41% of global retail sales will take place on online channels, a significant increase from the 18% recorded in 2017.

The Winning Formulas E-Commerce Growth research, conducted by BCG, surveyed 410 retail and 415 CPG companies worldwide with revenues ranging from $50 million to over $10 billion, to investigate the changes in e-commerce from the pandemic to present day. To be specific, according to BCG, by 2027 as much as 41% of global retail sales will take place on online channels, a significant increase from the 18% recorded in 2017. E-commerce sales increased in 2022 by 3% in Europe and 7% in both the US and Asia and will continue to grow globally at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% until 2027. Italy also experienced considerable sales growth during Covid reaching 77%, declining in the post-pandemic to 22% but down to 9% in early 2023.

The analysis identified “winning” companies with a post-Covid growth of more than 30% per year and a positive trend to 2027, distinguishing them from companies with a post-Covid growth of no more than 10% per year and no further growth expected. The market analyzed is almost split in half between companies that have triggered a virtuous cycle and companies with ample room for work on the strategic front as well as in terms of digital maturity.

As Antonio Faraldi, Managing Director and Partner at BCG and co-author of the study, says: «Will e-commerce continue to grow after the pandemic? I think this is one of the questions I have heard most frequently in recent times. We therefore decided to check - and the answer is yes: it will continue to grow, albeit at a less frenetic pace. We are talking about +9% per year between now and 2027. Which is not the 14% of pre-COVID but is still more than double the 4% at which sales on physical channels are expected to grow.»

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